In terms of the current status of the navigation and the weather picture, I think pretty much everyone will be aware that there has been very little recent rainfall. And at the National Drag Group today, we got updated by the Met Office to say that throughout July it's had about 4% of the average July rainfall for England and about 6% in Wales. And you only need to look at the map on the right to see how brown that is and how dire the average rainfall position has been across the whole of England and Wales and right over our navigations. In terms of what does that actually mean for a drought status or the position nationally.
If you look at the map on the left and note the date of 16 of July, this was you know less than two weeks ago that the whole country was in what's called a normal position and we had four regions in what's referred to as a prolonged dry weather. And these maps are tools that we use and these are provided to all the water sector by the environment agency. And then within less than a week, half of the country had moved into prolonged dry weather status. So if you look at the map on the right there, the map of England, by 20 July, half of the country had moved into a prolonged dry status.
Now, at the same time, Wales isn't included on this because this is an environment agency map and we have Natural Resources Wales as the regulator in Wales. Half of Wales, the northern half of Wales had already moved into drought status. Now, what this is clearly signalling is England is moving towards drought status and moving at a real quick pace.
As I said, most of Wales is in drought already, but what what's actually happening is a combination of very low rainfall and the four heat waves we've had so far this year are leading to some a real rapid onset of the drought. And it's referred to as a flash drought. And this is this is basically the drought is coming really quickly and really deeply and it's affecting all sectors and all industry that the Environment Agency, National Resource Wales, the Met Office, all the water industry in terms of utility providers, the agriculture and the farming sectors, everybody is getting caught out by this rapid onset of this flash drought. The water companies um have intro are starting to introduce temporary use bans. They're referred to as TUBs that they don't like the term hose pipe bans, but that's what some people will know them as. And five water companies have already introduced those and I've put more to follow with a question mark. I think that could be more to follow with a tick that will be happening. I'm pretty sure of that. In terms of the forecast, we need rain and the forecast at the moment has a little bit of unsettled weather on the horizon and into next week, but it's not it's not going to make a difference. I've put unlikely, but it's not going to make much of a difference.
And August which is a relatively close and a reliable forecast is forecast to be below average in terms of rainfall and there is a high chance of further heat waves and the little chart at the bottom right was shared with us by the Met Office today and when they have their three month outlook it shows the likelihood that drier and warmer weather conditions are going there's a higher likelihood of that continuing over a three month period and in some cases a much higher chance of that happening when you look at the top element of 2.3 times the chance for warm weather to be here.
So it's pretty dire in terms of the weather forecast and the prospect of rain. So what wat does this mean for us about available water to provide uh navigation? Well, our total reservoir holdings are shown on this graph here. And the things to note are the 2025 drought of last year was bad. It was as bad as anybody can remember. And where we are right now is in a better position than 2025. But if you look at the steepness of the trajectory of how quickly 2026 is drawing down, it's on a much steeper trajectory and it's forecast to get worse and get and get worse quicker. So we are going to we are going to get to a worse position at an earlier time um based on the current forecasts that we've got.
What this graph shows is our total reservoir holdings. But what where we also get water is from groundwater supplies and we're finding challenges with groundwater conditions and another source is via our abstractions from rivers and all our abstractions are licensed and 67 of those abstraction licenses have conditions about how much water we can take and a huge proportion of them are starting to introduce flow limits. So it limits down the amount of water we can take all the way to a position where it's called hands off flow and it means we have to stop abstracting. We're not allowed to take any water from the rivers. And five of our abstraction points right now have reached hands off flow conditions.
So we're instructed by the agency that we cannot take any water. So we've not got enough water in our reservoirs. it's drawing down quickly and we're struggling to get enough water out of our abstraction points. And so what does that actually mean for you as our boating customers? Well, it's a it's a really poor picture at the minute out there. And you know, I I'm genuinely sorry for the service that's being provided at the moment. This, you know, this is not what we want. This this is so much harder for us to operate a canal system that's got closures and restrictions and I understand how frustrating and how upsetting this is in terms of your plans for your summer cruising. So the current positions we've got 45 total closures. So this is for all reasons and this could be asset failures such as the Whitchurch breach or Anderton Boat Lift. But it's also to do with low water issues and I'll come on to that separately. But what we're also finding is we've had a huge number of fallen trees this year.
It is that June and July and the extreme heat wave we we've had double the amount of fallen trees we would expect in that period and we've had more trees fallen at this point this year than we've ever had since we started recording this. Some of them closure notices are planned works, things that we plan to do and it does include some of the longer term closures as well, such as the D branch. So 23 of those closures are for low water and it is fair to say it's due to not having enough water and the abstractions issues but this is also due to some of our infrastructure condition and we have got closure notices on canals where we've got enough water and this is about our as Campbell said us are we prioritising the right repairs in the right place and the right maintenance in the right place to make sure that we get the conveyance of the water from the reservoirs and that when once we get it in the canal that we keep it and we avoid leaks out of the system or leaks through the system. And the example I'd give you is the Lancaster Canal. We've got we've got enough water in the Lancaster Canal to provide most of the cruising season for this year and probably into next year, but we're really struggling to convey the water from through the northern reaches. And that's a combination of maintenance stuff with dredging and weeds and also we have got some significant leaks and we've got a cool but failure on the northern reaches. So this is a lot of infrastructure stuff is causing us problems.
Similar at Hurleston on the Llangollen Canal, we've had to implement an emergency closure and stoppage to try and do some temporary repairs to three of the locks, which I'm pleased to say is progressing really well. But that's going to get us through a season where we can hopefully get some navigation back underway. But that again is all about prioritising the right gate replacements and the right gate repairs. Additional to all those closures, we've got 14 restriction notices. And I think I need to signal at this point those restrictions are likely to turn into closures based on um the the current water position and the forecast on the horizon. So in terms of what we're doing, as Campbell said, we have implemented our national incident management structure. We've activated our goal command. I'm covering that role and we've got executive steer and oversight which is chaired by Campbell.
We've got a purpose to coordinate a single consistent response across all our operations and engineering teams, contractors, colleagues, volunteers, and we're aiming to maximise our water supply and retention works to provide navigation. So reprioritising repairs for those water retention elements and also in parts of the canal network that are most significant in terms of key navigation routes numbers of boat movements that we have there those that best support boating businesses as well as support our water transfer obligations. We're trying to prioritise repairing lock gates and paddles, bringing some stoppages forward where we're going to get windows, and identifying fixing leaks, improving feeder channels, and carrying out other water. So doing all this work and being agile and reacting to it means we are going to have to pause some other works and that they're difficult calls to make and what we will be doing is we'll be making sure we speak to navigation advisory group key stakeholders you we would welcome your thoughts on you know reprioritising some of the works that we're doing to help us inform these decisions and similarly we might have implement closures and we are already implementing closure closures on net parts of the network that will then help protect and save the water for higher priority areas.
So the relatively simple decisions on that are where we've got an arm that might be a dead end that goes that people can turn around in that might be leaky. So if we can close that and put some planks in and stop the leaks, it might retain and it should retain for longer the water supply in in the route or the cruising ring or whatever that might be. And we are going to use our emergency powers where we need to and where we can. So, this is meaning a day-to-day pivot of our teams focusing on water control, trying to support our boating customers, better water management, but it means we're going to have to suspend stuff and we're suspending some of the plan preventative maintenance work to maximise the availability of our resource and our people. We're really trying to step up our customer communication.
This evening is part of that. We're trying to give as much forewarning and trying to communicate quicker with you. We understand that timely, quick, and accurate information allows you to make good decisions about do you move your boat, do you send it, do you go do you go left or right when you hit a junction?
So, we're going to be constantly updating our uh FAQs. One of my colleagues will put a link in the chat and the challenge we're going to have is our aspirations for giving multiple week notice of closures and restrictions and maybe too ambitious in this state with this rapid onset flash drought. We're finding that things fall over really quickly and we're not being able to give you as much notice as we can. We will endeavour to do that, but please bear with us. We are closing some things at short notice. Please can I ask you use the stoppage notice page to keep a breast of what's going on. Subscribe to the stoppage notices if you haven't already. And we are already undertaking our planning for contingency measures um to support our boaters to support our navigation assets and to support the environment.